CryptoSemeshCompass v1
October 2026 accuracy report
Live forecasts for daily closes Oct 05, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 — the month is still in progress, numbers update after each close. Each forecast was published at 12:00 UTC and hash-chained before the close (OKX daily candle, 00:00 UTC).
80% range: how often the close landed inside
| Pair | Days | Daily close inside | 7-day close inside | Point forecast, avg error | No-change baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USDT | 10 | 8 (80%) | 3 of 3 | 0.93% | 0.82% |
| ETH/USDT | 10 | 7 (70%) | 1 of 3 | 1.35% | 1.35% |
| SOL/USDT | 10 | 7 (70%) | 0 of 3 | 1.94% | 1.77% |
| XAUT/USDT | 10 | 9 (90%) | 3 of 3 | 0.32% | 0.34% |
| All pairs | 40 | 31 (78%) | 7 of 12 | 1.14% | 1.07% |
The target is 80%. With about 10 days per pair, a perfectly calibrated range would still score between 59% and 100% per pair 9 times out of 10 — a single month is a small sample. "Point forecast" is the experimental CryptoSemesh forecast, not issued on 6 pair-days when fewer than 3 of 4 macro factors were confirmed; the no-change baseline takes the 12:00 UTC price as the forecast for the same days.
Biggest misses
| Day | Pair | 80% range | Close | Outside by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | SOL/USDT | 108.23 – 113.63 | 105.75 ▼ | 2.29% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | ETH/USDT | 2,496.04 – 2,591.90 | 2,447.27 ▼ | 1.95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | ETH/USDT | 2,453.63 – 2,557.31 | 2,421.73 ▼ | 1.30% |
How the range is built and tested: method. Every day of the month with plan, actual and hashes: full record (CSV available). Hash chain check: verify. Other months: all reports. This is a volatility estimate, not trading advice.