Not "up" or "down" — the range where BTC will most likely close today, published before the US open and checked against the daily close. Bitcoin is the most liquid crypto asset and the benchmark for the market's daily volatility — typically a 2–4% high-to-low swing per day.
At 12:00 UTC we take the BTC/USDT spot price on OKX and the 14-day Average True Range, scale it by the square root of the time left until the 00:00 UTC daily close, and apply a coefficient calibrated so the close lands inside the range 80% of the time. The forecast is posted to Telegram and sealed with a hash before the outcome. Full methodology · every BTC forecast vs. actual.
Each day at 12:00 UTC (8:00 AM ET) we publish the range where BTC is likely to close.
In the backtest since January 2025 the BTC close landed inside the range on 507 of 641 days (79%). Live results are tracked separately and every day is listed on the track record page.
At 12:00 UTC (8:00 AM ET). It is scored at the OKX daily close at 00:00 UTC (8:00 PM ET).
No. Direction is no better than a coin flip in our tests, so we forecast how far the price is likely to move instead.