Closing range
today: P ± 0.81 · ATR14 · √h
7 days: P ± 0.83 · ATR14 · √h
daily range ≈ ATR14 / yesterday's close
- P — OKX spot price at 12:00 UTC (8:00 AM ET), the moment the forecast is published.
- ATR14 — Average True Range over the last 14 completed daily candles (Wilder smoothing). What is ATR?
- h — time to the close in days: 0.5 for today's close at 00:00 UTC, 7.5 for the 7-day horizon.
- The coefficients 0.81 and 0.83 were fitted on 2023–2024 so that the close lands inside the range 80% of the time.
- Model version: v2.1. Any change to the formula ships as a new version, marked in the record.
Tested on data the model never saw
| Period | BTC | ETH | SOL | XAUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest Jan 01, 2025 – Oct 03, 2026 | 79% | 78% | 80% | 80% |
| Live forecasts, 90 days | — | — | — | — |
Share of days the close landed inside the range; the target is 80%. The coefficients were fitted on 2023–2024, so the backtest starts in 2025 — on data the model never saw. Every backtest day is listed in each pair's record and labeled as such. We compared ATR with GARCH, EWMA, HAR and the Parkinson estimator: they beat it by only 1–3%, so we kept the simple formula anyone can check.
Why we don't predict direction
We tested a trend-following model on all of 2025: it called the next day's direction right 51% of the time for BTC and 53% for gold — no better than a coin flip — and its error was slightly worse than simply assuming "no change". So there are no buy/sell signals here, and there won't be.
Limitations
- About 2 days out of 10 the close falls outside the range — by design. Sudden news-driven days are not predicted.
- Pairs move together: on a bad day they can all miss at once.
- The daily-range forecast is off by about 40% of the range itself on average, and it overestimates quiet weekends.
- Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.